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Forecast of garlic price in China in March

Orders in overseas markets have rebounded, and garlic prices are expected to hit the bottom and rebound in the next few weeks. Since the listing of garlic this season, the price has fluctuated little and has been running at a low level. With the gradual liberalization of epidemic measures in many overseas markets, the demand for garlic in the local market has also rebounded.
We can pay attention to the recent garlic market and market expectations in the coming weeks: in terms of price, garlic prices rose slightly on the eve of China's Spring Festival holiday, and have shown a downward trend since last week. At present, the price of garlic is the lowest price of new garlic in 2021, and it is not expected to drop too much. At present, the FOB price of 50mm small garlic is 800-900 US dollars / ton. After this round of price reduction, garlic prices may rebound to the bottom in the next few weeks.
With the gradual liberalization of epidemic measures in many overseas markets, the market situation has also improved, which is reflected in the volume of orders. Chinese garlic exporters have received more inquiries and orders than before. The markets for these enquiries and orders include Africa, the Middle East and Europe. With the approach of Ramadan, the order volume of customers in Africa has increased significantly, and the market demand is strong.
Overall, Southeast Asia is still the largest market for garlic in China, accounting for more than 60% of total exports. The Brazilian market suffered a serious contraction this quarter, and the export volume to the Brazilian market decreased by more than 90% compared with previous years. In addition to the nearly twofold increase in sea freight, Brazil has increased its imports from Argentina and Spain, which has a certain impact on Chinese garlic.
Since the beginning of February, the overall sea freight rate has been relatively stable with little fluctuation, but the freight rate to ports in some regions still shows an upward trend. "At present, the freight from Qingdao to EURO BASE PORTS is about US $12800 / container. The value of garlic is not too high, and the expensive freight is equivalent to 50% of the value. This makes some customers worry and have to change or reduce the order plan."
The new season of garlic is expected to enter the harvest season in May. "At present, the quality of new garlic is not very clear, and the weather conditions in the next few weeks are crucial."
——Source: Marketing Department