China's table fresh grape output is projected to rise for the
seventh consecutive year in the 2025/26 season, with a 6% growth to 15 million metric tons.
According to the latest report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China's table grape exports will match those of Peru in the 2025/26 season, propelling China to join Peru as the
joint global leading exporters.
The report notes that driven by increased production in China, India, the EU and Peru, the global table grape output will rise by 545,000 metric tons to 30 million metric tons.
China's output is forecast to grow for the seventh straight year in 2025/26, up 6% to 15 million metric tons. Its export volume is expected to jump 16% to 770,000 metric tons between June 2025 and May 2026, which will see China tie with Peru for the first time ever. In the previous season, China had already overtaken Chile.
Citing earlier analysis from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Beijing, the report states:
"Although the expansion of planting areas has stalled in recent years, technological improvements such as rain-shelter facilities and everbearing varieties have driven a steady increase in yield. This has more than doubled China's table grape exports over the past four years while reducing reliance on imports. Imports are projected at 100,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season, a 45% drop from four years ago."As the USDA points out, China's table grapes are mainly exported to the Southeast Asian market — nearly 60% of the shipments go to Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.
Geographical proximity has left China facing "limited competition" in the region, where it holds a market share of over 70%.
"In contrast, the vast majority of table grapes from Peru and Chile are sold to North America and Europe. The two countries compete with each other amid rivalry from South Africa, and the export seasons of all three nations are concentrated from December to April of the following year," the report adds.
The report emphasizes that the growth in global output has
completely offset the impact of reduced production in Turkey, the United States and Chile.
